Modelling Spillover Effects on Informal Carers: The Carer QALY Trap.

The provision of informal (unpaid) care can impose significant 'spillover effects' on carers, and accounting for these effects is consistent with the efficiency and equity objectives of health technology assessment (HTA). Inclusion of these effects in health economic models, particularly carer health-related quality of life (QOL), can have a substantial impact on net quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains and the relative cost effectiveness of new technologies. Typically, consideration of spillover effects improves the value of a technology, but in some circumstances, consideration of spillover effects can lead to situations whereby life-extending treatments for patients may be considered cost ineffective due to their impact on carer QOL. In this piece we revisit the classic 'QALY trap' and introduce an analogous 'carer QALY trap' which may have practical implications for economic evaluations where the inclusion of carer QOL reduces incremental QALY gains. Such results may align with a strict QALY-maximisation rule, however we consider the extent to which this principle may be at odds with the preferences of carers themselves (and possibly society more broadly), potentially leading decision makers into the carer QALY trap as a result. We subsequently reflect on potential solutions, highlighting the important (albeit limited) role that deliberation has to play in HTA.

Unmet Parenthood Goals, Health-Related Quality of Life and Apparent Irrationality: Understanding the Value of Treatments for Infertility.

An increasing number of prospective parents are experiencing infertility along with associated negative impacts on mental health and life satisfaction that can extend across a network of individuals and family members. Assistive reproductive technologies (ART) can help prospective parents achieve their parenthood goals but, like any health technology, they must demonstrate acceptable 'value for money' to qualify for public funding. We argue that current approaches to understanding the value of ART, including quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gains based on changes in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and, more often, cost per live birth, are too narrow to capture the full impact of unmet parenthood goals and ART. We see a fundamental disconnect between measures of HRQOL and broader measures of wellbeing associated with met and unmet parenthood goals. We also suggest that simple concepts such as 'patient' and 'carer' are of limited applicability in the context of ART, where 'spillovers' extend across a wide network of individuals, and the person receiving treatment is often not the infertile individual. Consideration of individual and societal wellbeing beyond HRQOL is necessary to understand the full range of negative impacts associated with unmet parenthood goals and the corresponding positive impacts of successful ART. We suggest moving towards a wellbeing perspective on value to achieve a fuller understanding of value and promote cross-sector allocative efficiency.

Considering Severity in Health Technology Assessment: Can We Do Better?

There is strong evidence that individuals and the public assign relatively greater value to health gains from relatively more severe health states. This preference is increasingly reflected in health technology assessment, with some consideration of severity incorporated by health technology assessment bodies in, among others, The Netherlands, England and Wales, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. If a societal "severity premium" is to be considered fairly and consistently, we argue that a more explicit and quantitative approach is needed. We highlight drawbacks of categorical approaches, especially discontinuities between severity categories that arguably violate concepts of vertical equity, and argue that a more continuous approach to understanding severity is needed. We also note challenges to more explicit approaches, including implications of a lower threshold for less severe conditions and the relative complexity of calculating a continuous severity adjustment.

How Do People with Experience of Infertility Value Different Aspects of Assistive Reproductive Therapy? Results from a Multi-Country Discrete Choice Experiment.

OBJECTIVES: Assistive reproductive therapies can help those who have difficulty conceiving but different forms of assistive reproductive therapies are associated with different treatment characteristics. We undertook a large, multinational discrete choice experiment to understand patient preferences for assistive reproductive therapies. METHODS: We administered an online discrete choice experiment with persons who had experience with subfertility or assistive reproductive therapies in the USA, UK, the Nordic region (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland), Spain, and China. Attributes encouraged trade-offs between effectiveness, risk of adverse effects, treatment (dis)comfort, (in)convenience, cost per cycle and shared decision making. We used multinomial logit and mixed-logit models to estimate preferences and attribute importance by country/region, and estimated willingness to pay for changes in attribute levels. RESULTS: A total of 7565 respondents participated. Mixed logit had a better fit than multinomial logit across all samples. Preferences moved in expected directions across all samples, but the relative importance of attributes differed between countries. Willingness to pay was greatest for improvements in effectiveness and a greater degree of shared decision making, and we observe a substantial 'option value' independent of treatment characteristics. Unexpectedly, preferences over cost were insignificant in the Chinese sample, limiting the use of willingness to pay in this sample. CONCLUSIONS: Respondents balanced concerns for effectiveness with other considerations, including the cost and (dis)comfort of treatment, and the degree of shared decision making, but there is also substantial option value independent of treatment characteristics, demonstrating value of assistive reproductive therapies to individuals with experience of subfertility. We hypothesise that price insensitivity in the Chinese sample may reflect a degree of social desirability bias.

Is the public supportive and willing to pay for a national assistive reproductive therapies programme? Results from a multicountry survey.

OBJECTIVES: To understand attitudes towards infertility and willingness to pay (WTP) towards a publicly funded national assistive reproductive therapies (ART) programme. DESIGN: Attitudes survey with dichotomous and open-ended WTP questions. SETTING: Online survey administered in the USA, UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and China. PARTICIPANTS: 7945 respondents, analysed by country. Nordic respondents were pooled into a regionally representative sample. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measures were proportion of sample agreeing with different infertility-related and ART-related value statements and supporting a monthly contribution to fund a national ART programme, expressed in local currency. Secondary outcome measure was maximum WTP. RESULTS: Across the nationally representative samples, 75.5% of all respondents agreed with infertility as a medical condition and 82.3% and 83.7% with ART eligibility for anyone who has difficulty having a baby or a medical problem preventing them from having a baby, respectively. 56.4% of respondents supported a defined monthly contribution and 73.9% supported at least some additional contribution to fund a national ART programme. Overall, converting to euros, median maximum WTP was €3.00 and mean was €15.47 (95% CI 14.23 to 16.72) per month. Maximum WTP was highest in China and the USA and lowest in the European samples. CONCLUSIONS: This large, multicountry survey extends our understanding of public attitudes towards infertility and fertility treatment beyond Europe. It finds evidence that a majority of the public in all sampled countries/regions views infertility as a treatable medical condition and supports the idea that all infertile individuals should have access to treatments that improve the chance of conception. There was also strong agreement with the idea that the desire for children is a basic human need. WTP questions showed that a majority of respondents supported a monthly contribution to fund a national ART programme, although there is some evidence of an acquiescence bias that may overstate support among specific samples.

The Relative Importance of Clinical, Economic, Patient Values and Feasibility Criteria in Cancer Drug Reimbursement in Canada: A Revealed Preferences Analysis of Recommendations of the Pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review 2011-2017.

BACKGROUND: Most Canadian provinces and territories rely on the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) to provide recommendations regarding public reimbursement of cancer drugs. The pCODR review process considers four dimensions of value-clinical benefit, economic evaluation, patient-based values and adoption feasibility-but they do not define weights for individual decision criteria or an acceptable threshold for any of the criteria. Given this implicit review process, it is of interest to understand which factors appear to carry the most weight in pCODR recommendations using a revealed preferences approach. METHODS: Using publicly available decision summaries (n = 91) describing submissions and resulting recommendations 2011-2017, we extracted ten attributes that characterized each submission. Using logistic regression, we identified statistically significant attributes and estimated their relative impact in final recommendations. RESULTS: Clinical aspects appear to carry the greatest weight in the decision to reject or not reject, along with aspects of patient value (treatments with no alternatives were less likely to be rejected). Cost effectiveness does not appear to play a role in the initial decision to reject or not reject but is critical in full versus conditional approvals. There is evidence of a maximum acceptable threshold of around $Can140,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. CONCLUSION: A set of factors driving pCODR recommendations is identifiable, supporting the consistency of the review process. However, the implicit nature of the review process and the difficulty of extracting and interpreting some of the attribute levels used in the analysis suggests that the process may still lack full transparency.

Adjuvant Statin Therapy for Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging preclinical evidence indicates statins, medications commonly used in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), inhibit proliferation, promote apoptosis and limit invasiveness of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Population-based observational data demonstrate statin treatment after diagnosis of EAC is associated with significant reductions in all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. A feasibility study of adjuvant statin therapy following potentially curative resection for EAC has been completed, with planned progression to a full phase III, randomized controlled trial. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the cost-utility of statin therapy following surgical resection for EAC from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and outcomes [quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)] for hypothetical cohorts of patients with EAC exposed or not exposed to statins following potentially curative surgical resection. Model parameters were based on estimates from published observational and trial data. Costs, utilities and transition probabilities were modeled to reflect clinical practice from a payer's perspective. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainty in key parameters. RESULTS: Overall, a cost saving of £6781 per patient was realized with statin treatment compared to no statins. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 99% of all iterations were cost saving and 99% of all iterations were less than £20,000 per QALY gained. These results were robust to changes in the price and effectiveness of statins. CONCLUSIONS: The cohort exposed to statins had lower costs and better QALY outcomes than the no statin cohort. Assuming a causal improvement in disease outcomes following resection for EAC, statin therapy is very likely to be a cost-saving treatment.

On Effective Graphic Communication of Health Inequality: Considerations for Health Policy Researchers.

Policy Points: Effective graphs can be a powerful tool in communicating health inequality. The choice of graphs is often based on preferences and familiarity rather than science. According to the literature on graph perception, effective graphs allow human brains to decode visual cues easily. Dot charts are easier to decode than bar charts, and thus they are more effective. Dot charts are a flexible and versatile way to display information about health inequality. Consistent with the health risk communication literature, the captions accompanying health inequality graphs should provide a numerical, explicitly calculated description of health inequality, expressed in absolute and relative terms, from carefully thought-out perspectives. CONTEXT: Graphs are an essential tool for communicating health inequality, a key health policy concern. The choice of graphs is often driven by personal preferences and familiarity. Our article is aimed at health policy researchers developing health inequality graphs for policy and scientific audiences and seeks to (1) raise awareness of the effective use of graphs in communicating health inequality; (2) advocate for a particular type of graph (ie, dot charts) to depict health inequality; and (3) suggest key considerations for the captions accompanying health inequality graphs. METHODS: Using composite review methods, we selected the prevailing recommendations for improving graphs in scientific reporting. To find the origins of these recommendations, we reviewed the literature on graph perception and then applied what we learned to the context of health inequality. In addition, drawing from the numeracy literature in health risk communication, we examined numeric and verbal formats to explain health inequality graphs. FINDINGS: Many disciplines offer commonsense recommendations for visually presenting quantitative data. The literature on graph perception, which defines effective graphs as those allowing the easy decoding of visual cues in human brains, shows that with their more accurate and easier-to-decode visual cues, dot charts are more effective than bar charts. Dot charts can flexibly present a large amount of information in limited space. They also can easily accommodate typical health inequality information to describe a health variable (eg, life expectancy) by an inequality domain (eg, income) with domain groups (eg, poor and rich) in a population (eg, Canada) over time periods (eg, 2010 and 2017). The numeracy literature suggests that a health inequality graph's caption should provide a numerical, explicitly calculated description of health inequality expressed in absolute and relative terms, from carefully thought-out perspectives. CONCLUSIONS: Given the ubiquity of graphs, the health inequality field should learn from the vibrant multidisciplinary literature how to construct effective graphic communications, especially by considering to use dot charts.

A Longitudinal Study of Ambulatory Physician Encounters, Emergency Room Visits, and Hospitalizations by Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A 13-year Population Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine total physician encounters, emergency room (ER) visits, and hospitalizations in an incident cohort of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases and matched control patients over 13 years. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed using administrative healthcare data from about 1 million people with access to universal healthcare. Using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th ed (ICD-9) and ICD-10 diagnostic codes, 7 RA case definitions were used. Each case was matched by age and sex to 4 randomly selected controls. Data included physician billings, ER visits, and hospital discharges over 13 years. RESULTS: The number of incident RA cases varied from 3497 to 27,694, depending on the case definition. The mean age varied from 54.3 to 65.0 years, and the proportion of women from 67.8% to 71.3%. The number of physician encounters by patients with RA was significantly higher than by controls. It was highest in the index year and declined promptly thereafter for all case definitions and by 12.2%-46.8% after 10 years. Encounters with subspecialty physicians fell by 61% (rheumatologists) and 34% (internal medicine). In contrast, clinical encounters with family physicians and other physicians fell by only 9%. Visits to the ER and hospital admissions were also significantly higher in RA cases, particularly early in the disease, and fell significantly over the followup. CONCLUSION: In patients with RA, healthcare use is highest in the first year following the diagnosis, which is also the time of maximal involvement by rheumatologists. Use declines over time, and encounters with patients' family physicians predominate over other physician groups.

Is febrile neutropenia prophylaxis with granulocyte-colony stimulating factors economically justified for adjuvant TC chemotherapy in breast cancer?

PURPOSE: Febrile neutropenia (FN) during adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with morbidity, mortality risk, and substantial cost, and subsequent chemotherapy dose reductions may result in poorer outcomes. Patients at high risk of, or who develop FN, often receive prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSF). We investigated whether different prophylaxis strategies with G-CSF offered favorable value-for-money. METHODS: We developed a decision model to estimate the short- and long-term costs and outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of women with breast cancer receiving adjuvant taxotere + cyclophosphamide (TC) chemotherapy. The short-term phase estimated upfront costs and FN risks with adjuvant TC chemotherapy without G-CSF prophylaxis (i.e., chemotherapy dose reductions) as well as with secondary and primary G-CSF prophylaxis strategies. The long-term phase estimated the expected costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for patients who completed adjuvant TC chemotherapy with or without one or more episodes of FN. RESULTS: Secondary G-CSF was associated with lower costs and greater QALY gains than a no G-CSF strategy. Primary G-CSF appears likely to be cost-effective relative to secondary G-CSF at FN rates greater than 28%, assuming some loss of chemotherapy efficacy at lower dose intensities. The cost-effectiveness of primary vs. secondary G-CSF was sensitive to FN risk and mortality, and loss of chemotherapy efficacy following FN. CONCLUSIONS: Secondary G-CSF is more effective and less costly than a no G-CSF strategy. Primary G-CSF may be justified at higher willingness-to-pay thresholds and/or higher FN risks, but this threshold FN risk appears to be higher than the 20% rate recommended by current clinical guidelines.

Utilization of Ambulatory Physician Encounters, Emergency Room Visits, and Hospitalizations by Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients: A 13-Year Population Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine total physician encounters, emergency room (ER) visits, and hospitalizations in an incident cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cases and matched control patients over 13 years. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed utilizing administrative health care data from approximately 1 million people with access to universal health care. Using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions diagnostic codes, 7 SLE case definitions were used. Each case was matched by age and sex to 4 randomly selected controls. Data included physician billings, ER visits, and hospital discharges over 13 years. RESULTS: The number of incident SLE cases varied from 564 to 4,494 depending on the case definition used. The mean age varied from 47.7 to 50.6 years and the proportion of females from 78.0% to 85.1%. SLE utilization of physicians was highest in the index year, and declined significantly thereafter for all case definitions. By the fourth year, encounters with subspecialty physicians fell by 60% (rheumatologists), 50% (internists), and 31% (other physicians). In contrast, visits to family physicians fell by only 9%. Visits to the ER and hospital admissions for SLE cases were also more frequent early in the disease course and fell significantly over the study for both ER visits (all case definitions) and hospitalizations (2 of 7 case definitions). CONCLUSION: In SLE patients, health care utilization is highest in the first few years following the diagnosis, which is also the time of maximal involvement by rheumatologists. Utilization declines over time, and encounters with patients' family physicians predominate over those of other physician groups.

Adherence to guidelines and the screening tool of older persons' potentially inappropriate prescriptions criteria for colchicine dosing for gout treatment in beneficiaries of the Nova Scotia Seniors' Pharmacare Program.

PURPOSE: Colchicine is commonly used in the management of gout; however, older persons have higher risks of toxicity. Accordingly, the Screening Tool of Older Person's potentially inappropriate Prescriptions (STOPP) criteria for colchicine consider >3 months of treatment as potentially inappropriate in older persons. Recent evidence also suggests lower dosing of colchicine is as effective and results in fewer toxicities than high-dose colchicine. The objectives of this study were to determine the dose, duration, and prescribers of colchicine and to evaluate adherence to the STOPP criteria and international guidelines for colchicine in older persons. METHODS: A retrospective, observational study was conducted from April 1, 2006 to March 31, 2011 to evaluate colchicine use. Nova Scotia Seniors' Pharmacare Program beneficiaries who met inclusion criteria for an incident case of gout and who filled at least 1 prescription for colchicine during the study period were included. Colchicine dose and duration were reported descriptively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of the study population in making a claim for colchicine >90 and >180 days. FINDINGS: A total of 518 persons were dispensed 1327 courses of colchicine during the study period. The mean daily dose of colchicine ranged from 1.39 to 1.50 mg. Colchicine doses >1.2 mg were prescribed in approximately one-third of the study population. Colchicine was prescribed for >90 days in 14.2% of treatment courses and for >180 days in 8.1% of treatment courses. Female sex was the only predictor of treatment duration >90 days. IMPLICATIONS: This study is the first to report on colchicine dose and duration using STOPP criteria in a specific cohort of older persons with incident gout. Strategies to improve colchicine prescribing in older persons are needed.

Societal preferences for distributive justice in the allocation of health care resources: a latent class discrete choice experiment.

Economic theory suggests that resources should be allocated in a way that produces the greatest outputs, on the grounds that maximizing output allows for a redistribution that could benefit everyone. In health care, this is known as QALY (quality-adjusted life-year) maximization. This justification for QALY maximization may not hold, though, as it is difficult to reallocate health. Therefore, the allocation of health care should be seen as a matter of distributive justice as well as efficiency. A discrete choice experiment was undertaken to test consistency with the principles of QALY maximization and to quantify the willingness to trade life-year gains for distributive justice. An empirical ethics process was used to identify attributes that appeared relevant and ethically justified: patient age, severity (decomposed into initial quality and life expectancy), final health state, duration of benefit, and distributional concerns. Only 3% of respondents maximized QALYs with every choice, but scenarios with larger aggregate QALY gains were chosen more often and a majority of respondents maximized QALYs in a majority of their choices. However, respondents also appeared willing to prioritize smaller gains to preferred groups over larger gains to less preferred groups. Marginal analyses found a statistically significant preference for younger patients and a wider distribution of gains, as well as an aversion to patients with the shortest life expectancy or a poor final health state. These results support the existence of an equity-efficiency tradeoff and suggest that well-being could be enhanced by giving priority to programs that best satisfy societal preferences. Societal preferences could be incorporated through the use of explicit equity weights, although more research is required before such weights can be used in priority setting.

Choosing vs. allocating: discrete choice experiments and constant-sum paired comparisons for the elicitation of societal preferences.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence of a reluctance to allocate health care solely on the basis of maximizing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Stated preference methods can be used to elicit preferences for efficiency vs. equity in the allocation of health-care resources. OBJECTIVE: To compare discrete choice experiment (DCE) and constant-sum paired comparison (CSPC) methods for eliciting societal preferences. METHODS: Over a series of choice pairs, DCE respondents allocated a fixed budget to one preferred group and CSPC respondents allocated budget percentages between the groups. Questionnaires were compared in terms of completion rates, preference consistency, dominant preferences and derived attribute importance. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the proportions that rated the questionnaires somewhat or extremely difficult, but a significantly greater proportion completed the DCE compared to the CSPC. Preference consistency was also higher in the DCE. The incidence of dominant preferences, including for aggregate QALYs, was low and not significantly different between questionnaires. Similarly, no CSCP respondents equalized budgets or outcomes in every task. Final health state was the most important attribute in both questionnaires, but the rankings diverged for the other attributes. Notably, the total patients' treated attribute was important in the CSPC but insignificant in the DCE, perhaps reflecting a 'prominence effect'. CONCLUSIONS: Despite lower completion rates and preference consistency, CSPC may offer advantages over DCE in eliciting preferences over the distribution of resources and/or outcomes as well as attribute levels, avoiding extreme 'all-or-nothing' distributions and possibly aligning respondent attention more closely with a societal perspective.

Constant-sum paired comparisons for eliciting stated preferences: a tutorial.

There is growing recognition of the importance of formally including public preferences and values in societal decision-making processes. Constant-sum paired comparison (CSPC), sometimes known as a 'budget pie' task, is a stated preference method than can be used to elicit and measure these preferences and values. It requires respondents to allocate resources between two alternatives, and the relative allocation of this resource is assumed to reflect the importance or priority that respondents attach to the attribute levels in each alternative. CSPC is useful in addressing questions over preferences for the distribution of resources, and allows for an explicit linkage of budget constraints, opportunity costs, outcomes and group characteristics. A key property of CSPC is the ability to allocate some resources to the less preferred alternative, forcing respondents to reflect on the relative value of both alternatives, and possibly giving it an advantage in contexts such as healthcare where respondents may find it ethically difficult or objectionable to make all-or-nothing allocations. This tutorial will outline the theory underlying CSPC, and will work through a detailed example of administering and interpreting a CSPC elicitation, including defining attributes and levels, constructing experimental design, task presentation, and analysis and interpretation.

The use of administrative health care databases to identify patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To validate and compare the decision rules to identify rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in administrative databases. METHODS: A study was performed using administrative health care data from a population of 1 million people who had access to universal health care. Information was available on hospital discharge abstracts and physician billings. RA cases in health administrative databases were matched 1:4 by age and sex to randomly selected controls without inflammatory arthritis. Seven case definitions were applied to identify RA cases in the health administrative data, and their performance was compared with the diagnosis by a rheumatologist. The validation study was conducted on a sample of individuals with administrative data who received a rheumatologist consultation at the Arthritis Center of Nova Scotia. RESULTS: We identified 535 RA cases and 2,140 non-RA, noninflammatory arthritis controls. Using the rheumatologist's diagnosis as the gold standard, the overall accuracy of the case definitions for RA cases varied between 68.9% and 82.9% with a kappa statistic between 0.26 and 0.53. The sensitivity and specificity varied from 20.7% to 94.8% and 62.5% to 98.5%, respectively. In a reference population of 1 million, the estimated annual number of incident cases of RA was between 176 and 1,610 and the annual number of prevalent cases was between 1,384 and 5,722. CONCLUSION: The accuracy of case definitions for the identification of RA cases from rheumatology clinics using administrative health care databases is variable when compared to a rheumatologist's assessment. This should be considered when comparing results across studies. This variability may also be used as an advantage in different study designs, depending on the relative importance of sensitivity and specificity for identifying the population of interest to the research question.

Clinical benefits and economic impact of post-surgical care provided by pharmacists in a Canadian hospital.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical pharmacists improve the quality of patient care by reducing adverse drug events (ADEs), length of stay and mortality. This impact is currently not well described in surgery. The objective was to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes after clinical pharmacist services were added to two general surgical wards in an adult hospital. METHODS: This was a prospective, observational study. All clinical interventions to resolve drug therapy problems were documented and assessed for severity, value and the probability of preventing an ADE. Cost avoidance was calculated using two methods: by avoiding additional days in hospital (CA$3593/ADE) or additional hospital costs ($7215/ADE). Two clinical pharmacy specialists and the surgical care pharmacist independently categorized the interventions; disagreements were resolved by consensus. KEY FINDINGS: The pharmacists made 1097 interventions in 6 months with a 98% acceptance rate by surgical staff. Half of the interventions were rated significant for severity (561, 51.1%) and value (559, 51.0%). One-quarter of the interventions had a 40% or greater probability of preventing an ADE (270, 24.6%). Cost avoidance was estimated to be $0.68-1.36 million or $617-1239 per intervention. Pharmacists avoided an additional 867 days in the hospital for surgical patients. CONCLUSION: The pharmacist's role in the management of the drug therapy needs of the post-surgical patient has the potential to improve clinical and patient outcomes and avoid healthcare costs. The inclusion of clinical pharmacists in surgical wards may result in $7 in savings for every $1 invested.